* * Vault * Green Room * Ed Morrissey Show Pawlenty’s new senior political advisor: Huckabee’s daughter

Gamechanger?

Here’s the news that Pawlenty campaign manager Nick Ayers promised via Twitter earlier today: Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the daughter of the 2008 presidential candidate, is joining the Pawlenty campaign as a senior adviser.

She served as national political director for her father — who won the Iowa GOP caucuses — during the last presidential cycle. She also worked as the campaign manager for Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) in 2010.

She’s got a caucus-winning rolodex and a brand name that’ll get Pawlenty a second look from Christian conservatives who might have been tilting towards Bachmann. Will it get him her dad’s endorsement, too? That would be a real gamechanger, but maybe only if it happens sooner rather than later: T-Paw desperately needs a shot in the arm before the straw poll next month to halt the swell of Bachmania and convince big donors he’s capable of beating Romney. Is there any chance whatsoever that Huckabee would endorse before Ames? I’m guessing no, although…

Sarah Huckabee Sanders is joining Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s presidential campaign as senior political adviser. She begins her new role in the campaign’s Iowa headquarters today, taking the lead for the campaign on the Iowa Straw Poll effort with a focus on expanding the campaign’s grassroots operations across the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

Coming in a few weeks: *Ring* “Hi, dad. It’s Sarah. Listen, I need a favor…” And speaking of Iowa gamechangers, take five minutes to read RCP’s report on Palin supporters quietly organizing inside the state to help her hit the ground running if/when she jumps in. One local tea partier with state organizing experience thinks she’d be the frontrunner once she jumped in — but warns that she’d probably need at least 30 days to be well positioned for Ames, which is just … 39 days from now. If she decides not to run, where do those Palinista boots on the ground go?

After President Barack Obama revealed the suspect status of his support for Israel — and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wowed crowds with a sternly-worded address to a special joint session of Congress — some speculated Jewish American support for Obama would wane. But a new Gallup poll out yesterday shows a large majority still approve of the president.

Jewish Americans gave President Barack Obama a 60% job approval rating in June, down from 68% in May, but statistically unchanged from 64% in April. Thirty-two percent of U.S. Jews now disapprove of the job Obama is doing, similar to their 30% average thus far in 2011. …

President Obama delivered a major speech at the State Department on May 19 in which he articulated his support for a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a return to Israel’s 1967 borders. His remarks provoked a highly negative reaction from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as from many high profile supporters of Israel in government, politics, and media.

Gallup cannot say whether the speech had an immediate impact on the views of Jewish Americans toward the president nationally, as sample sizes for this group in Gallup Daily tracking are too small to isolate short time periods.

However, aggregated Gallup Daily tracking interviews for the month and half periods prior to and following the speech show no significant nor sustained shift in Jewish Americans’ views toward Obama. Sixty-five percent approved of him for the April 1-May 18 time period, and 62% approved from May 19-June 30. Across the two time periods, approval was also essentially flat among all U.S. adults.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Jews who attend synagogue weekly — who tend to be more conservative, in general — are less supportive of Obama than those who don’t.

In general, the poll confirms what Ed said earlier:

The Jewish vote won’t suddenly swing to the GOP, for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama. Jewish voters tend to be more progressive; the Democratic Party is a more natural home for them. While there may be some truth in the notion that African-Americans are naturally more conservative and could be won over with a more concerted effort by Republicans to address their issues through debate (as Jack Kemp tried), that’s almost certainly not true of Jewish voters as a bloc. The GOP position on Israel might be a better fit, but on domestic politics, they’ll keep voting Democratic.

But the official affirmation of Jewish support the poll provides is still good news for Obama, who needs every bit of approval he can muster heading into a difficult reelection. Of course, he especially needs any approval that will translate to campaign cash — and whether this poll actually contradicts what some have said, that the crucial category of politically active Jews are less enthused about Obama than ever before, remains to be seen. After all, the poll didn’t specifically seek out Jewish Americans noted for political involvement. It could be the (randomized) sample that so strongly supports Obama just happens to barely vote, let alone donate.

Casey Anthony acquitted for some reason

Obama’s doing a quickie presser at 4:40 p.m. to talk about the debt ceiling and the evils of corporate jets, etc, but apart from that, it’ll be wall-to-wall Caseymania on cable news for the rest of the day. There’s no avoiding it so we might as well catch the news wave and surf. How many of you followed the trial? I only watched bits and pieces, but if you need to get up to speed, the Wikipedia article of the case is a solid summary based on what I’ve read elsewhere. Money quote: “There is something wrong. I found my daughter’s car today and it smells like there’s been a dead body in the damn car.” And yet, the party raged on.

Here’s what her lawyer did to her father on the witness stand. Unbelievable.

The Ed Morrissey Show: Andrew Malcolm & the Casey Anthony verdict

We’ll also cover the the case of Marizela Perez, who has been missing in the Seattle area for more three months. Marizela’s case has a connection here at Hot Air, as she is the cousin of the Boss Emeritus, Michelle Malkin. Michelle is trying to spread the word through Facebook and Q13Fox/KCPQ in Seattle. We want to encourage prayers for Marizela’s family, and also try to reach anyone in the area who knows where Marizela might be and ask them to contact the police.

The search has its own website now, Find Marizela, for the latest in the efforts to bring Marizela home. There is also a fund for the family to keep the search efforts going. Be sure to check there and at Michelle’s site for further developments, and keep the family in your prayers.

America’s Most Wanted is now on the case, too.

Michelle has a new update today:

Today on The Ed Morrissey Show (3 pm ET), we return with our Tuesdays with Andrew Malcolm, the Prince of Twitter, on the intersection of media and politics. We’ll talk about the Minnesota shutdown, the Casey Anthony trial and verdict due at 2:15 ET, and much, much more. We will also take your questions in our Lightning Round in the final 20 minutes of the show — so make sure you’re registered at Ustream to be one of our Chatizens!

The Ed Morrissey Show and its dynamic chatroom can be seen on the permanent TEMS page — be sure to join us, and don’t forget to keep up with the debate on my Facebook page, too!

Video streaming by Ustream

Four months ago today, my cousin Marizela Perez disappeared from the University District in Seattle, Washington. I am devastated to tell you once again that there are no new leads or breaks in the case. Her parents have exhausted their work leave and have had to return to the East Coast. The family is weighing various legal and investigative avenues to pursue. As I reported in May, the quest to obtain Marizela’s online/text info has been an uphill battle. After months of pressing, we finally received a search warrant two weeks ago related to the case. It had been signed by a judge on April 22; we gained access to it in late June. …

Marizela’s Google web history was not included. The Seattle Police Department will not disclose the actual Google records to her parents so that they could pursue the search for Marizela on their own.

Keep the family in prayer.

U.K. Pound Rallies in Forex Trading

Sterling gets another boost in currency trading

The U.K. pound is gaining in forex trading on the currency market today. Better than expected economic data is helping the sterling in currency trading.

Indeed, right now the sterling is one of the few currencies gaining against the U.S. dollar. A little bit of risk aversion is pressuring most of the high beta currencies. Euro is struggling as the fallout continues from S&P's response to the latest suggestion on the Greek bailout.

Equities are struggling, though, and that could weigh on the U.K. pound later. For now, though, sterling is higher, bucking the trend for a higher dollar across the board.

Risk Aversion Gains Upper Hand in Currency Trading

Greece, China weigh on forex market

Greece and China are weighing on the forex market today, sending many currencies lower. The U.S. dollar is higher against most other currencies right now, gaining as forex traders look for a safe haven.

Right now, only the U.K. pound is having much luck against the greenback. Indeed, concerns about what's next for the euro zone are weighing on the forex market, and worries about China are starting to show. China might have more troubled loans than originally thought. Without China to back up the U.S. in an economic recovery, there are worries about another global recession.

It will be interesting to see what happens next. With the budget deficit still an issue in the U.S., and with concerns about what's happening in other countries, it is little surprise that risk aversion is the story today.

GFT Named Best Forex Education Provider

2011 IBTimes Trading Awards Released - GFT Named Best Forex Education Provider

Global news leader International Business Times (IBTimes.com) announced the results of the 2011 IBTimes Trading Awards in New York City on May 31, 2011.

GFT, a US-based Forex Broker, won 3 awards: Best Forex Education Provider Award, Customer Service - Excellence Award and Forex Broker Japan - Excellence Award.

This year, a total of 30 retail FX broker firms were honored from a pool of 140 brokers nominated by 6,400 traders in 82 countries in 6 languages. The IBTimes Trading Awards offer one of the most comprehensive quantitative and qualitative annual award available for the fast growing retail Forex markets.

The survey was conducted over 6 months from September 2010 and March 2011. All voting was carried out electronically via a secure, dedicated data collection website.

The IBTimes Trading Awards fall into two major sections, one that recognizes brokers through quantitative measures (or relative market shares) and one through qualitative rankings (or client satisfaction) at the continent and country level.

"We are thrilled to accept the award for Best Forex Education Provider," said Gary Tilkin, president and CEO of GFT. "At GFT, we have always considered education to be an important part of any trading plan. We know that one of the best ways we can support our customers is by providing them with access to free tools and educational resources that will help them become more informed traders. Thank you IBTimes, and for all those who voted GFT."

The full results for the 2011 IBTimes Trading Awards can be viewed at the official awards website: www.IBTimesawards.com.

About the IBTimes Trading Awards

The 2011 IBTimes Trading Awards identify their findings of the best financial service providers globally. The awards recognize excellence in the quality of the services they offer to traders and investors.

From 2010, readers of The International Business Times have been invited to vote on a range of attributes of the providers they use. The winners in each category are selected based on the votes and a judging panel of industry experts and independent research groups.

The IBTimes Trading Awards builds on the successes of last year's Awards, the 2010 FX Traders' Choice Awards. They were awarded based on the votes of IBTimes' readers collated by Forex DataSource, a Forex market research firm. The goal of the FX Traders' Choice Awards was to empower traders with reliable information and help them select reputable brokers, as traders decided the winners.

This year, the 2011 IBTimes Trading Awards continues to give public recognition to those brokers and financial service providers while increasing the scope of the awards to cover all major asset classes including Funds, ETFs, Stocks, Futures and Options. The awards also reflect The International Business Times' global identity and include votes on financial service providers from around the world that provide services in multiple languages.

Quantitative Easing Ends, U.S. Dollar Higher

Greenback in currency trading

The U.S. dollar is higher across the board today in forex trading on the currency market. It's the first day without quantitative easing, and the greenback is doing better than many thought it would.

However, a lot of it probably has to do with low volume. Americans are gearing up for a long weekend, and Europeans are waiting to see what happens at a special finance minister meeting on July 3.

With all of this waiting, it is little surprise that the U.S. dollar is higher -- even with stock markets in Europe and the U.S. rallying to start the month of July.

Canadian Dollar Loses Ground in Forex Trading

Loonie lower in currency trading

The U.S. dollar is gaining against many major currencies after falling short earlier. The Canadian dollar is losing some ground in forex trading after seeing success against the greenback.

Loonie has been doing well in currency trading, advancing quite rapidly. However, some forex traders believe that the Canadian dollar was overbought. As a result, the loonie is going through a correction.

Also helping the U.S. dollar in forex trading right now is the fact that there is some risk aversion on the latest news about the possibility of a Greek default. As a result, not even slightly higher oil prices have been able to help the Canadian dollar in forex trading.

Could the U.K. Pound See Solid Gains in the Last Half of 2011?

Sterling expected to appreciate later this year

The U.K. pound is expected to see solid gains as we move into the second half of 2011. Indeed, sterling is the only major currency gaining against the U.S. dollar today.

One of the main reasons that the U.K. pound is expected to do well in forex trading on the currency market is due to the widening interest rate gap between the dollar and the pound.

Even the choppy equity markets and concerns about Greek debt default have been unable to send the U.K. pound lower in currency trading today, even though the loonie and euro are both down. Rangebound trading is expected, though, since the Independence Day holiday in the U.S. is resulting in low volume for the financial markets.

Happy Independence Day

How will you celebrate our nation’s independence? We have a rather traditional day laid out for ourselves. We’ll start the day out with our city parade and a brunch with our extended Minnesota family. Later, I’ll do some grilling, and late in the evening, we will join friends to watch fireworks in St. Paul. In between, the First Mate and I will continue watching the miniseries John Adams, starring Paul Giamatti and Laura Linney as John and Abigail Adams. The story stretches from the Boston Massacre to Adams’ death on July 4, 1826, and presents a brilliant warts-and-all look at the man known as the Colossus of Independence in his day. The series includes this dramatization of the approval and publication of the Declaration of Independence, a stirring recitation:

My wife and I have spent the last few summers watching documentaries and dramatic recountings of the American Revolution period. Last year, we discovered The Founding of America, a collection of History Channel presentations that are worth so much more than the modest sale price of the set. I reviewed it last year, and the price has dropped considerably since then, which makes it a steal. But if you can’t get your hands on either for today, the History International channel will play the miniseries The Revolution all day, which is one of the programs included in the set, and a fine way to get into the spirit.

However you celebrate our independence, have a happy and safe day with family and friends, and take a moment to remember the men who risked all for our freedom and liberty.

Three ways to bolster liberty on Independence Day

Earlier today, I prescribed a blend of civic and personal for celebrating Independence Day. Glenn Reynolds, better known as Instapundit, offered a more active plan for both celebrating and promoting liberty today and in the future in his Washington Examiner column yesterday. Besides e-mailing New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg a photo of yourself eating a hotdog (brats here in the Upper Midwest, natch), Glenn writes that Americans can declare their independence from those who want to keep us dependent on an out-of-touch federal nanny-state government in three ways:

* Attack the funding. Many of the most anti-liberty activities of state and local governments are driven by federal funding — either direct funding, or grants. …

* Stop supporting the enemies of freedom and start supporting your friends. Cancel your subscriptions to cable TV channels, magazines or newspapers that support big government over individual liberty.

* Join Together. It may seem contradictory to assert your independence by banding together. But our Founding Fathers didn’t set America free by acting alone.

The first two points are rather clear, although Glenn offers good advice in how to carry out both. He provides some interesting food for thought with the third. The nature of American liberty and independence is not isolation, but in voluntary associations, as Glenn references Alexander de Tocqueville’s observation:

In fact, voluntary association, as de Toqueville observed, is part of the particular genius of the American republic. So get involved.

You might join a political party — many small-government activists are trying to take over the Republican (and some even the Democratic) Party at the grassroots level and work from the bottom up, from the precinct to the state level.

It’s surprisingly easy to get involved in politics locally, and you can acquire responsibility and influence quite rapidly if you’re good with people and willing to put in the work.

Alternatively, you might join a Tea Party group. Those are still springing up all over, and are already having a dramatic influence on both national and local politics.

Every group is different, as the Tea Party is a movement, not a party, and has no main office. Find one that suits you, or start one if you can’t.

If there’s one issue you care about a lot, get involved there. Gun rights activism crosses party lines, but has had a major influence in expanding liberty — over the past decade, the growth of Second Amendment rights has been one of the major Bill of Rights success stories. There are lots of other causes, ranging from fathers’ rights to tax fairness. Pick one.

And if you’re not a joiner at all, well, you can always start a blog. For some people, that works out pretty well!

It worked out well for us, quite obviously, and that didn’t come from simply writing a blog from a log cabin in the wilderness. Success for people like Glenn and others came from networking with people of similar interests and passions, linking together (literally and figuratively) to advance arguments and inspire action, and work to build momentum for policies that advance liberty and freedom. It’s a modern version of the pamphleteering that advanced the American experiment, both before and after the Revolution.

It is an amazing privilege to live in a country where such power still remains in the hands of its citizens, a good point to remember on this day of all days.

Update: Apropos of celebrating independent, Mitch Berg, Kevin Ecker, and I will be staging a MOB On The Range Day to celebrate our Second Amendment freedoms (MOB stands for Minnesota Organization of Bloggers). The event will be a benefit (more later on that), and will be held in the near future. If you’re in Minnesota near the Twin Cities — or can make it here — stay tuned for more details.

Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.

Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.

Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.

(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.)

Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up.

There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.

But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.

Which pretty well explains this outcome:

Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.

Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.

The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.

Lots here. Feedback welcome.

Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.

Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.

Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.

(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.)

Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up.

There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.

But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.

Which pretty well explains this outcome:

Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.

Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.

The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.

Lots here. Feedback welcome.

Quotes of the day

“The story concludes, ‘The Constitution serves the nation; the nation does not serve the Constitution.’ The connotation is that we shouldn’t be too slavish in our fidelity to the Constitution.

“Like the rest of this article, its conclusion misses the point. The Constitution serves the American people as an unbreakable constraint on those in power, dictating their duties and the limits on their authority. The Constitution serves We the People by requiring every government official to take an oath to obey its every word.

“The picture art at the outset of Time’s story shows the Constitution cut in dozens of narrow vertical strips. Clearly it had been run through a paper shredder.

“Evidently this is wishful thinking for some on the far left. The only problem is that it’s false. Interest in the Constitution is resurgent, and that renewed interest is the key to America’s renewal in our third century.”

***

“Any discussion of invoking the Constitution’s 14th Amendment as a way out of the debt-limit impasse is ‘crazy talk,’ Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said on ‘Fox News Sunday.’

“Some Democrats have been pointing to the 14th Amendment, which states that federal debts ‘shall not be questioned,’ as a legal argument for why President Barack Obama could continue to pay the country’s debt even if the limit is not raised…

“‘It is not acceptable for Congress and the president not to do their job and say basically the president has the authority to do this by himself,’ Cornyn said.”

***

“The great respect George Washington had accrued during the fighting of the Revolutionary War argued for making the president commander in chief of American forces. But which branch would decide when to go to war? Because members of both the House and the Senate represented the communities from which soldiers and sailors would be drawn for future conflicts, wisdom dictated that the power to make war be put in their hands.

“Keeping those two powers — declaring and waging war — separate involved an engineering feat Madison tellingly described as pitting the officeholders’ ambitions against each other.

“Obama not only acted according to original expectations in his reluctance to have his authority curtailed, but so did Congress. Liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans have dropped their differences for the moment and joined together to check presidential power. Instead of acting like partisans, they are trying to chart a course of action to preserve their constitutionally mandated authority.

“Madison went on to say that relying on personal ambition to maintain the separation of powers might seem to reflect on human nature, but what then, he asked, is government itself if not ‘the greatest of all reflections on human nature.’”

***

“The question is, has the congressional power to regulate interstate commerce been so loosely construed that now Congress can do anything at all, that there is nothing it cannot do.

“Let me ask the three of you. Obviously, obesity and its costs affect interstate commerce. Does Congress have the constitutional power to require obese people to sign up for Weight Watchers? If not, why not?”

Quit being a party guy, President Obama, says … Evan Thomas?

So much for being “sort of God.” In this week’s press conference, Barack Obama blamed eeeeeeeeeeevil corporate jet owners and oil companies for the federal budget deficit in an attempt to play class-warfare games to fire up the base. Former High Priest of ObamaMania Evan Thomas (who also sidelines as a Newsweek editor) became an apostate by noting that demagoguery wastes time and makes it harder to find solutions. Thomas “applaud[s] the energy,” but wonders when Obama will start presidenting instead of being a party hack:

On “Inside Washington,” host Gordon Peterson asked his panel to suggest a way to overcome the current impasse and get Congress and the White House moving on a budget deal. Thomas offered up a solution, but also expressed his frustration with Obama.

“Yeah, because it’s happened before – Obama has got to be President of the United States,” Thomas said. “He has to be two things. He has to make a public case of how bad is this, because he is not doing that. He’s not being honest about just how bad this is going to be — no, he was partisan. He was God [bleep] Democrat! He was just, you know – being a party guy. I applaud the energy but it wasn’t getting me anywhere. He has got to rise above that and then in private, in private – he’s got to make a deal.”

Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer’s sentiments fell in line with Thomas’s.

“Instead of saying, as a president ought to say, is that we have a problem — it is a serious problem, it’s a growing problem, it’s a structural problem and we have to do something, he says, as in the sound bite you showed, it is a choice between helping the elderly on Medicare and corporate jets and oil tax breaks,” Krauthammer added. “That is pure demagoguery and that is not leadership.”

When acolytes start tossing criticisms instead of hosannas, I’d say we have consensus. Barack Obama … uniter?

NEA Convention 2011: A New Reality

I’m blogging all weekend long live from the National Education Association Representative Assembly in Chicago.

That’s what National Education Association Secretary-Treasurer Becky Pringle called the situation in which the union finds itself this year. It won’t come as a surprise to readers of this blog that NEA has a $14 million budget shortfall, or that it has lost more than 39,000 active members. Pringle stated that the deficit is closer to $17 million due to increased costs to the union’s legal services program, which subsidizes each state affiliate’s attorney referral program and other litigation-based actions for individual members.

Plus, Pringle said, “We have to assume we haven’t hit bottom yet.”

What might surprise you, given NEA’s aversion to staff reductions in the public schools (to the point where California just passed a law under cover of darkness to save teachers’ jobs even without the money to pay them – a move pioneered in Detroit and Los Angeles), is that the union plans to partially cut the deficit with $4.8 million in staff reductions.

Asked how many staffers would be lost, Pringle replied, “about 20.” If anyone in the audience did the math, that’s $240,000 saved per staffer, which tells you all you need to know.

Who knew Ms. Pringle could be such a fiscal hawk? She described to the delegates present how difficult it was to make budget cuts, since each program had a constituency arguing to protect it. She declared, “I will not support an increase in dues” to close the budget gap because “our members are hurting.” And she detailed the budget committee’s work on staff costs, saying, “We’ve worked to reduce benefits.”

Indeed, Pringle’s words are coming out of the mouths of school board presidents across the country.

There were also indications that while there may be red states and blue states, the only color that matters is green.

NEA Vice President Lily Eskelsen spoke excitedly of receiving funding for NEA’s English Language Learners program from Western Union.

Pringle defended NEA’s business relationship with Bank of America, saying the union has been able to exert influence over the bank in the area of credit card rate hikes for members, and saving the union money on electronic fund transfers for dues.

Is a shutdown the Democratic plan to recapture the legislature in 2012?

On yesterday’s NARN show, Mitch Berg and I had the opportunity to speak with the two leaders of Minnesota’s legislature, Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch and House Speaker Kurt Zellers, as well as our friend and former NARN band member Rep. King Banaian. Mitch and I asked them all why the government shutdown occurred — a question none of them could quite answer. The budget comes in nine bills, and Republicans had reached substantive agreement with Dayton on six of them, were close on two more, and only had difficulties on one, tax policy. The last biennial budget spent just under $31 billion; Republicans wanted to reduce that spending, but ended up offering a budget that came in at over $34 billion for the next biennium, an increase (after adjustments) of 6% in real spending. At the end, as Dayton refused to sign any of the budget bills, Republicans offered a “lights on” bill (a version of a continuing resolution in Congress) to keep government open while they struggled to reach agreement on policy.

Dayton refused to agree to the special session that would have considered the lights-on bill — and which will need to get called eventually to resolve the government shutdown anyway. Why did Dayton refuse to negotiate in good faith? Via my friend Scott Johnson at Power Line, Katherine Kersten accuses Dayton of trying to torpedo this session in order to give his party an opportunity to win back control of the legislature in 2012:

Did Dayton intentionally try to provoke a shutdown? We can only say that if he had wanted to, he would have acted precisely as he has in recent months.

Throughout the budgetary process, Dayton refused to give legislators the details they needed to take his priorities into account in crafting their own budget bills. He refused to negotiate on individual bills until he had seen them all.

The Legislature sent its bills to Dayton six weeks before the session ended, but he frittered away the time for negotiation. He vetoed all nine bills at the end of the session, so legislators had no chance to rework them to address his concerns.

As shutdown loomed, Dayton refused to resolve small differences and sign major portions of the budget, such as K-12 education, judiciary and public safety, on which agreement was close. The Pioneer Press called this “hostage taking,” not “compromise.”

But Minnesotans need to understand the bigger picture here. Behind Dayton and out of the limelight, DFL legislators have been playing for much higher stakes than a $1.8 billion spending increase.

In recent weeks, DFL minority leaders Paul Thissen and Tom Bakk have been glued to Dayton’s side throughout budget negotiations. Why? If Dayton — with the help of DFL legislators — could parlay a shutdown into a DFL legislative takeover in 2012, the political payoff for the party would be huge.

Dayton won’t face reelection until 2014, and the public’s memory of the current fiscal train wreck will be long gone by then.

But the Legislature is up for reelection in 2012 — just around the corner. If Dayton gets egg on his face for the shutdown, DFL leaders may view it as a small price to pay, so long as irate voters can be led to spread the blame to Republicans and to transfer legislative control to the DFL next year.

A 6% biennial increase seems like a pretty good offer of good will by Republicans in this environment; we heard from a couple of callers who were unhappy that the GOP increased spending at all. One e-mailer wondered aloud how he should vote in future elections if both Republicans and the DFL were determined to continue spending increases (answer: vote for the party that increases it least, I guess). What did the GOP get for its attempt to find a middle ground with Dayton, who wanted to increase the biennial budget to $37 billion and institute higher tax rates in the state already ranked 43rd in business tax environment? An utter refusal to negotiate and a state shutdown that Dayton at one time promised not to pursue.

I’d say Kersten is on the right track here.

Video: Should law enforcement be able to track vehicles without a warrant?

They certainly can now, but the Supreme Court has agreed to decide whether law enforcement should place tracking transmitters on the vehicles of suspects without first seeking a warrant. The test case will come from an appellate court that threw out a drug-distribution conviction and life sentence, ruling that the failure to get a warrant for the device violated the Fourth Amendment rights of Antoine Jones, a nightclub owner in Washington DC. As MSNBC reports, though, Jones was not the only suspect to have unknowingly carried an FBI tracking device:

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I’m surprised that this hasn’t happened before. With most vehicles requiring an oil change every 3,000 miles, cars get racked on a regular basis. Perhaps other law enforcement agencies do a better job of hiding the transmitter that they did with Afifi. The report doesn’t indicate what the FBI’s interest was in surreptitiously tracking the American-born college student, but they didn’t mind making their presence known to get the transmitter back.

Maybe they were tracking Afifi for a study on a federal mileage tax, eh?

The Jones case involved the police, not the FBI:

The appeals court threw out the conviction and the life-in-prison sentence for Antoine Jones, a nightclub owner in Washington, D.C., for conspiracy to distribute cocaine.

Police put the GPS device on Jones’ vehicle and tracked his movements for a month during their investigation. Evidence obtained as a result of using the GPS device played a key role in his conviction.

The appeals court said prolonged electronic monitoring of Jones’ vehicle amounted to an unreasonable search.

The argument that law enforcement needs no warrant to track vehicles on public roads doesn’t make a lot of sense. They can’t search the vehicles themselves without permission, a search warrant, or probable cause (which strongly suggests an emergent situation as opposed to a chronic issue) even if the vehicle is on a public road at the time. Why, then, can police or FBI use tracking devices without the same restrictions, especially for long periods of time?

Drivers might not have a right to privacy in the act of driving on public roads, but that applies mainly in the moment. For instance, if police observe someone smoking a joint or drinking Jack Daniels while driving, they have the jurisdiction to pull the car over and arrest the driver, and few if any would dispute that. That’s a far cry from the government at any level compiling a list of travels and destinations over any period of time, which really does fall into Big Brother territory. If the government has probable cause to collect that kind of information, then law enforcement has enough information to get the search warrant to start collecting that kind of data.

Poll: What was the Obamateurism of the Week?

Time once again to take a flier on the Obamateurism of the Week, and this will be another tough choice.  I’d reduce the entries, but we apparently can’t cut our way to prosperity, so we’ll have to enjoy the bounty.  But, like any cash-strapped family, we’ll save by looking for dinner specials, even if we have to speed up the birthday cake.

What was the Obamateurism of the Week (7/3)?

“But we can’t simply cut our way to prosperity.”Says he will handle federal budget "like any cash-strapped family" while Treasury Secretary says "Government is not like a family" regarding budgetsRaffle for Presidential dinner escalates to 2-1 special with BidenMistakes his daughter's age during press conferenceSix references to tax breaks for "corporate jet owners" as reason budget isn't balanced

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Previous 2011 “winners”:

• Identifies wrong soldier as non-posthumous MoH recipient
• “You see it when you go to a bank and you use an ATM; you don’t go to a bank teller.”
• Uses restaurant as example of success of auto bailouts, closes two weeks later
• Goes for 70th round of golf on Memorial Day
• Obama botches toast to Queen Elizabeth
• “Israel must be able to defend itself – by itself – against any threat“
• WH gripes that immigration debate too often uses caricatures after Obama says, “Maybe they’ll need a moat.”
• White House issues Earth Day proclamation, skips Easter
• Can’t name a mistake at townhall in which he made three in one sentence
• Accuses GOP of trying to hurt seniors after lecturing them not to demagogue on entitlement reform
• “If you’re complaining about the price of gas and you’re only getting 8 miles a gallon, you know, you might want to think about a trade-in.”
• Obama accepts his transparency award in secret, no-press meeting
• “War” first changed to “kinetic military action,” then “time-limited, scope-limited military action”
• Obama telling people it would be easier to be President of China because “No one is scrutinizing Hu Jintao’s words in Tahrir Square.”
• Obama tells group that there is a “subterranean” racially-based agenda in opposition to his presidency
• Ferry for Americans in Libya comes three days late — and with a bill for passengers
• WH says Obama not addressing Libya because of “scheduling issue“
• After saying he hadn’t followed the Wisconsin issue, says Walker’s plan “seems like more of an assault on unions.”
• Businesses have “obligation” to create jobs and “pay decent wages”
• After losing verdict on first ever federal mandate to purchase private-sector product, accuses judge of “overreach”
• Obama bogarts Newt Gingrich’s book title for his “Winning the Future” SOTU speech
• 2009 Nobel Peace Prize winner holds state dinner for man who has 2010 winner under house arrest
• After telling Boehner and McConnell that “there will be plenty of time to campaign for 2012 in 2012,”announces March start to re-election bid
• “I really want to figure out a way where I can spend more time outside of Washington listening and learning and engaging the American people.”

Got an Obamateurism of the Day? If you see a foul-up by Barack Obama, e-mail it to me atobamaisms@edmorrissey.com with the quote and the link to the Obamateurism. I’ll post the best Obamateurisms on a daily basis, depending on how many I receive. Include a link to your blog, and I’ll give some link love as well. And unlike Slate, I promise to end the feature when Barack Obama leaves office.

Illustrations by Chris Muir of Day by Day. Be sure to read the adventures of Sam, Zed, Damon, and Jan every day!